DCVC DTOR 2024: How clean is cleantech from China?

To understand how even the renewable energy industry could contribute to global warming, look at the solar industry. Solar photo­voltaic panels are made using a high-purity form of silicon called polysilicon. The unfortunate reality is that half of the polysilicon consumed by the solar industry globally comes from the Xinjiang province of China.

That’s a problem for two reasons. First, China’s forced-labor system for Uyghurs and other Muslim minorities in the western province means that workers in polysilicon mines and factories ​“are forced to work under guard and constant threats,” according to the U.S. Department of Labor. Second, about 63 percent of China’s electricity, including the power for the factories that make solar cells, comes from coal-fired power plants, according to the Inter­na­tional Energy Admin­is­tra­tion. The percentage is likely even higher in the country’s far west, where there are no nuclear or natural gas power plants.

And China is adding to its coal generating capacity, not shrinking it. The country approved 114 gigawatts of new coal power plants in 2023, up 10 percent from 2022. While China signed on to the 2015 Paris Agreement, which calls for the almost complete phase-out of coal energy by 2040, a new report from Norwegian risk assessment firm DNV projects that China will manage to cut its coal consumption by only one-third by 2040.

The truth is that solar, wind, and other renewable and storage projects using equipment sourced from China have a notable and indelible carbon footprint — which is part of the reason DCVC continues to invest in clean, onshore energy projects like Fervo Energy’s geothermal wells and Oklo’s next-generation fission microre­ac­tors (see Opportunity 3.1). ​“PRC energy is so dirty, and the supply chain and fab for this stuff is so energy-intensive, that the true ​‘net-zero GHG’ payback period for this gear is longer than people think,” says DCVC managing partner Matt Ocko.